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Madagascar: A Greek Tragedy That Will Hurt Investment
(...) Watching the tenure of President Marc Ravalomanana of Madagascar come to an end resembled seeing a ball of twine unravel as it rolled unimpeded down a slope. Or to use another metaphor, like watching a Greek tragedy in all its acts, the central figure a president-king who became blind to the hopes of his people, and deaf to those who tried to tell him that his constituents were restive and he was in trouble. (...)
So, yes, President Ravalomanana, a freely-elected and re-elected president, who entered office offering such great hope to his expectant people, made some very bad choices in his role as leader of Madagascar. But this is not unique to Africa; one need look no further than (...) U.S. shores to see this. (...)
Yet Ravalomanana was a vast improvement on his predecessor, who had ruled for more than two decades with a clenched fist and the help of North Korea. (...) Corruption declined significantly during the Ravalomanana years, though the terms of business deals sometimes became more difficult for some long-established businesses as well as for potential new investors.
The tipping point, however, was likely his decision to virtually give a massive amount of land to a foreign company, DaeWoo, on which to develop agriculture for purposes of export. Most people in Madagascar depend on agriculture for their existence. Everywhere they create rice paddies, at the expense of unique flora and fauna; if the rice fields were to fail, there would be massive starvation in one of the poorest countries in the world.
Land possession is exactly that in Madagascar. Whoever can use the land owns it, so access to it is key to many a family. To watch prime land being given away to a foreign corporate giant was even more infuriating to a Malagasy than the current scandal over bonuses paid to staff of AIG, the insurance company, is to the average American.
The president tried to say the deal was not done, but the deal, whatever it was, was never completely revealed nor negated, and the image of a giant giveaway, whatever the facts prove to be, remained. However well-intentioned it may have been to lure DaeWoo to Madagascar for investment, it was communicated to the public extremely poorly. The president had given his opponents their opportunity.
As his tenure moved to its end, Ravalomanana's approval rating may have been even lower than George Bush's nadir in his presidency. It seemed highly unlikely that he would have been re-elected and virtually certain that there would be a new president at the next election, still a few years away.
His enemies, publicly personified by Andry Rajoelina, then the mayor of Antananarivo and now the head of government, saw the sea of discontent, just as a hungry lion sees a weakened prey, and went for the kill. Why wait for the people to decide when you could become the new president now? (...)
Unfortunately, a lot more may be lost to Madagascar than the presidency and a genuinely free and fair election. The voice of the people is once again secondary to the interests of the few. A young untested new leader, albeit with some public support, full of himself, and clearly contemptuous of democratic institutions, has been put in place only with the blessing of the military, albeit a military that had apparently been resistant to intervention until the situation was clearly irreversible.
There can be no doubt that business investment, so promoted by President Ravalomanana, will be hurt, and so, too, may investment in other parts of Africa. We can plead for investment in Africa, but who will put their own money and time into a nation whose leader is impetuous and unpredictable and whose laws can be changed overnight by another coup, or upon the whims of an autocrat? Who will take the time to discern the difference between Madagascar and nearby Mozambique, where investment is prospering and governance is rapidly improving?
For the United States, the removal of President Ravalomanana will be viewed by some as a major setback. Madagascar was the first nation to receive the Millennium Challenge Account compact that awarded $110 million to address issues of infrastructure and, ironically, land reform. The critics of MCC in Congress will surely step up their questions. This is a major setback for new progressive and innovative policy initiatives such as the Millennium Challenge Act. (...)
The events in Madagascar have embarrassed many in Africa, once again contributing to the view of some that the continent is not capable of self-governance, despite the proof otherwise in so many nations on the continent. It now presents a challenge to the African Union, and the skeptics wait to see how a very complex situation will be handled.
And ultimately, Madagascar is economically crippled. There will likely be little new investment except perhaps by the supporters of the coup. Tourism numbers have already plummeted precipitously. The international community may apply some sanctions or penalties until free elections are restored but that remains to be seen. Sanctions may make us feel good, but the first people that are generally hurt are the poor, not those at whom they are aimed. (...)
