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The Meeting of Sergey Lavrov and Hillary Clinton in Geneva
(...) Russian-American relations, having undergone an acute crisis in the past year as the result of many years of stagnation, have begun a revival. (...) The meeting between Clinton and Lavrov in Geneva [on March 6, 2009] represents serious negotiations, which should set the stage for the meeting of presidents in London. It is precisely the London meeting of the heads of state that will answer the question of whether Russia and the U.S. will manage to ‘reset’ their relations.
Success will require a few things. First, they will need to find a way to put on the back burner the questions about which Moscow and Washington are deeply divided. These are the questions of NATO expansion, the post-war situation in the Caucasus, and the problem of ABM in Europe. To a large degree this has already been done – tensions have fallen, and the atmosphere has improved. Second, they will need to find avenues of practical cooperation on the questions where the fundamental interests of Russia and the U.S. largely coincide – Afghanistan and Iran. Progress is visible in all of these directions; a serious discussion has begun. Third, it is necessary not only to begin negotiations on strategic arms, but also to establish such talks as a permanent forum for issues of strategic stability to which other states can join in the future – first and foremost, China. Fourth, it is necessary to step up action on the economic front. Who, practically speaking, benefits from Russia's absence in the WTO, from the lack of normal trade relations between Russia and the U.S., and from the freeze on the agreements on Russian-American cooperation in the area of nuclear energy? Fifth and finally, it is necessary to formulate a bilateral coordinating mechanism that would stimulate the development of cooperation. It is important that the main coordinators on both sides be experienced and authoritative people with free access to their respective presidents.
The task of the coordinators is not only to eliminate bureaucratic problems, but above all to develop a common vision for the further evolution of relations between America and Russia: where are we going? If confrontation is unacceptable – which both sides affirm – then it is necessary to think about how to solve the problems that have not been resolved since the fall of the Berlin wall and the end of the ‘Cold War’: the question of the creation of a modern system of Euro-Atlantic security with the participation of NATO countries, Russia, and its neighbors (including Ukraine and Georgia). It is unlikely that this will be attainable through a legally binding treaty. An OSCE-2 is clearly not needed. It is obvious, on the contrary, that there is a severe and mutual deficit of trust. (...)
Today, it is clear that first test of the new relations between Russia and the U.S. will be Iran. Considering the real interests of both countries as well as the factor of the politics of Iran itself, building up cooperation will not be easy, but it is possible – given the presence, as is commonly said, of political will in Moscow and Washington. A price must be paid for any cooperation. The price of the lack of cooperation – of animosity – is, as a rule, higher. We can only hope that the ‘Georgian lesson’ is not lost.
